Estimation Gross Enrolment Rate of Higher Education in Bangka Belitung Island using Small Area Estimation

Abstract

Quality education up to the highest level, especially in developing countries is the goal of sustainable development. One of the statistical indicators used to measure the success of education development at the universities education is the Gross Enrollment Rate - Higher Education (APK-PT). However, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as the data provider can only provide APK-PT data up to the provincial level. In fact, local governments at both the provincial and district levels need more detailed data to make policies for higher quality education. According to BPS, the APK-PT Indonesia in 2019 is 30.28. This means that only 30.28 percent of the population aged 19-23 years are actively pursuing higher education. Therefore, estimation using the small area estimation method is used to obtain APK-PT at the district level. The Province of Bangka Belitung Islands is a research locus because it has the lowest APK-PT in Indonesia in 2019. This research uses the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) 2019 data and PODES 2018 data. The results show that the Small Area Estimation (SAE) approach is Empirical Best Linear Unavailable Predictors (EBLUP) type Fay-Harriot Model is suitable for estimating APK-PT of Bangka Belitung Islands Province at district level.