Pemodelan Risiko Penyebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya Menggunakan Model Cauchy Cluster Process

Prajna Pramita Izati, Achmad Choiruddin

Abstract


COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang menyerang alat pernapasan. Jumlah kasus COVID-19 di Jawa Timur terus mengalami peningkatan tiap harinya khususnya wilayah Surabaya Raya meliputi Kota Surabaya, Kabupaten Gresik, dan Kabupaten Sidoarjo yang memiliki jumlah pasien terkonfirmasi positif tertinggi dibandingkan kabupaten/kota lainnya di Jawa Timur. Kota Surabaya menjadi penyumbangkan terbesar kasus terkonfirmasi postif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya yaitu sebesar 60,1 %. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan risiko penyebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya dengan melibatkan beberapa kovariat dimana kriteria pembandingnya yaitu nilai BIC terkecil dan envelope K-function. Hasil uji homogenitas menunjukkan penyebaran data kasus terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya tidak homogen dan untuk korelasi spasial dengan Inhomogeneous K-function diperoleh bahwa data cenderung membentuk kelompok atau klaster. Hasil pemodelan didapatkan bahwa model Inhomogeneous Cauchy Cluster Process setelah eliminasi merupakan model terbaik, dimana kovariat kepadatan penduduk dan kepadatan lokasi kerumunan yaitu pusat perindustrian dan tempat ibadah berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap risiko penyebaran kasus terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya. Sementara itu, kepadatan pusat perbelanjaan tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Hasil prediksi risiko kasus terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya menunjukkan risiko penyebaran kasus terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 di wilayah Kota Surabaya lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan wilayah Kabupaten Sidoarjo maupun Gresik.

Keywords


COVID-19; Inhomogeneous Cauchy Cluster Process; Pemodelan; Surabaya Raya.

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12962/j27213862.v5i1.12345

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