Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) dalam Peramalan Data Curah Hujan di Kota Makassar

Nurul Ilmi, Aswi Aswi, Muhammad Kasim Aidid

Abstract


Modeling of rainfall data using time series data involving location elements has not been widely carried out. One model that involves elements of time and location is Space Time Autoregressive (STAR). The development of the STAR model which assumes that each location has heterogeneous characteristics is the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) model. The purpose of this research is to get the best GSTARIMA model and forecast rainfall data in Makassar City based on the best GSTARIMA model. This model incorporates time and geographic dependencies with different parameters for each location. The data used is Makassar city's monthly rainfall data at the Bawil IV/Panaikang, Biring Romang/Panakkukang and Stammar Paotere rain stations from January 2017 to September 2021. Autoregressive (AR) and Moving Average (MA) orders were identified using the Space Time Autocorrelation plot. Function (STACF) and Space Time Partial Autocorrelation Function (STPACF). The spatial order used in this study is spatial order 1 with an inverse distance weighting matrix and normalized cross-correlation. Parameters were estimated using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. The best model for predicting rainfall in the city of Makassar is the GSTARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0)12  model using an inverse distance weighting matrix with the smallest average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 132.9661.

Keywords


Rainfall; GSTARIMA; Distance Inverse; Cross correlation; GLS

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12962/j27213862.v6i1.14347

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ISSN:  0216-308X

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