Prediction of Nike’s Stock Price Based on the Best Time Series Modeling

Abstract

Nike is one of the world's largest shoe, clothing, and sports equipment companies. The more modern the development of the era, the more diverse the fashion. Of course, investors can consider this when deciding whether to invest in Nike's brand shares. Stock prices constantly fluctuate up and down, so investors need to implement strategies to minimize losses in investing to achieve economic growth. This supports the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in point 8 regarding the importance of sustainable economic growth and investment in infrastructure development to improve economic welfare. Investors can minimize losses by predicting or forecasting stock prices. Stock prices can be analyzed using specific methods. The update that will be brought in this study is the Nike brand stock price prediction for the 2020-2024 period using the best model from the time series method comparison conducted using classical nonparametric, which consists of the kernel estimator method and the Fourier series estimator method and modern nonparametric using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method. Based on the analysis method, the best method is selected through the minimum MAPE value. A comparison of the results of Nike brand stock price predictions using several methods shows that the MAPE value of the Nike brand stock price data analysis is the minimum obtained using the kernel estimator approach, which is 1.564%. Thus, the kernel estimator approach predicts the Nike brand stock price much better. Predictions using the best methods can be recommendations and evaluations for economic actors to prepare better economic planning.