Pemodelan Estimasi Biaya Kontingensi Pada Proyek Konstruksi Jalan Raya Berbasis Metode Analisis Risiko

Andy Sutikno, Mohammad Arif Rohman

Abstract


Ketidakpastian risiko pada proyek konstruksi jalan raya mendorong perkiraan biaya kontingensi di estimasi secara tradisional berdasarkan penilaian subyektif seperti 5-10% dari biaya yang diperkirakan dengan mempertimbangkan proyek sejenis yang pernah dikerjakan. Metode tersebut secara ilmiah tidak bisa diterima dan sulit untuk dipertahankan keakurasiannya. Studi ini mengusulkan metode pengembangan model biaya kontingensi dari perspektif pemilik proyek yang dapat mengakomodasi penilaian subjektif berdasarkan risiko. Identifikasi variabel risiko diperoleh dari survei pendahuluan, wawancara, penyebaran kuesioner dan studi literatur, sedangkan perhitungan pemodelan biaya kontingensi menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perkiraan biaya kontingensi rata-rata adalah 8,92% dari rencana anggaran proyek. Tingkat kesalahan pengujian model adalah 0,21% dari batas kesalahan yang diijinkan dan hasil validasi menunjukkan bahwa nilai analisis prediktif berada dalam akurasi 20% dibandingkan dengan biaya kontingensi yang sebenarnya.

Keywords


Risiko royek, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Biaya kontingensi

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12962/j2579-891X.v20i3.14100

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