Penerapan Logika Fuzzy dalam Memperkirakan Jumlah Produksi Telur Terhadap Permintaan Pasar

Abstract

The longer the population in Indonesia is growing, and making the number of egg demand also increases. Increasing demand to make a farm and egg distributor that is UD. Junjong Drajat in Bendiljet Orchard, Karangtalun Village, Kalidawir Subdistrict, Tulungagung District, there is often a problem in the supply of eggs due to poor inventory system and inaccurate determination of inventory. To solve the problem required a system that can estimate the amount of egg production to be marketed on demand is using Fuzzy Logic Sugeno Method, because Sugeno method able to classify data and customize with other data. The demand data patterns are trendy and seasonal so use the Triple Exponensial Smoothing Additive Seasonal Methodto predict the number of requests. The calculation results obtained forecasting the number of requests for April 30 to May 6, 2018 is 124.784 kg, with parameters α = 0,3, β = 0,1 and γ = 0,3 has a MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 26,57% Which is sufficient. For an estimated production amount using the Sugeno method of 87.800 kg (Toolbox Matlab), with a total inventory inventory of 79,200 kg.