Model Matematika SEAR dengan Memperhatikan Faktor Migrasi Terinfeksi untuk Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia

E. Andry Dwi Kurniawan, Fatmawati Fatmawati, Aprilia Dianpermatasari

Abstract


Dalam paper ini, dikonstruksi sebuah model matematika SEAR (Susceptible, Exposed, Acute, Recovery) penyebaran COVID-19 dengan memperhatikan faktor migrasi yang terinfeksi. Dilakukan estimasi parameter dari model matematika SEAR berdasarkan data perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia. Dari hasil estimasi, niali basic reproduction number () untuk mengetahui laju penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia juga ditentukan.  Berdasarkan hasil simulasi numerik terlihat bahwa faktor migrasi memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap penyebaran kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia


Keywords


COVID-19, model matematika, faktor migrasi, estimasi parameter

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12962/limits.v18i2.7774

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